Mice Affairs Media Group, India, 21 Dec 2020
CEIR Announces 2020 Third Quarter Results Exhibition Industry Remains at a Standstill The Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) reports
that the exhibition industry remained at a grinding halt in the third quarter
of 2020, with approximately 97% of originally scheduled events cancelled. As
a result, the CEIR Total Index, a measure of exhibition industry performance,
registered a 98.1% decline from a year ago (see Figure 1). The industry
experienced a more moderate year-over-year decline of real
(inflation-adjusted) GDP at 2.9%, which increased at an annual rate of 33.1%
from the previous quarter. The latter had been somewhat boosted by continued
reopening of businesses, strong residential investment, and online and other
consumer goods purchases. Figure 1: Real GDP vs. CEIR Total Index, 2020 Q1-Q3,
Year-over-Year % Change |
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Despite
the economic rebound enjoyed in the third quarter, the exhibition industry remained
largely stalled given the persistence of COVID-19. A second wave of the virus
in July prompted a number of states to pull back on reopening their economies
and impose stringent group size limitations, all contributing to a lack of
trade show activity. About 3% of events did take place as mostly small,
regional events. The continuance of stringent rules imposed by states and
municipalities, as well as ongoing no travel corporate policies, caused most
events scheduled for the third quarter to be canceled or postponed to 2021.
These two reasons are cited as the top two reasons why business-to-business
(B2B) exhibition organizers say they were forced to cancel, according to
CEIR’s June poll. These policies mute participation potential. Other opinion
polls tracking consumer sentiment record reluctance to travel, with air
travel continuing to remain well below 2019 levels. Excluding
the cancelled events during the third quarter, the Total Index dropped by
36.1%. All exhibition metrics posted sharp year-over-year declines. Attendees
suffered the largest fall of 57.6% and exhibitors decreased 29.2%, whereas
net square feet (NSF) tumbled 26.3%. Real revenues declined 24.6% from a year
ago. Figure 2: Quarterly CEIR Metrics for the Overall Exhibition
Industry, Year-over-Year Growth, 2020Q3 |
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The
U.S. economy has been growing since May. With a sharp rebound in the third
quarter, the real GDP was only 3.5% below its peak in the fourth quarter of
2019. Recent monthly economic indicators point to continued moderate growth
in the fourth quarter, though newly imposed restrictions in some states will
restrain recovery around the turn of the year. As a result of Congress
failing to quickly pass a Phase 4 rescue plan combined with a relatively high
rate of new COVID-19 cases, economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 is
likely to slow significantly. Nonetheless, CEIR expects economic growth will
accelerate again in the second quarter as more people are vaccinated and the
impact of the Phase 4 rescue programs start to kick in. CEIR expects real GDP
to surpass its previous peak in the third quarter of 2021. “The
strong underlying macroeconomic factors should lay a firm foundation of
support to the B2B exhibition industry when state and local governments ease
restrictions on group gatherings during the second half of 2021,” said CEIR
Economist Allen Shaw, Ph.D., Chief Economist for Global Economic Consulting
Associates, Inc. “The
exhibition industry is transforming and innovating itself with a rise in
virtual or hybrid events to fill the void while physical events are paused,”
added CEIR CEO Cathy Breden, CMP, CAE, CEM. “With a full recovery in the
economy and a majority of the population vaccinated, the recovery of B2B
exhibitions should take hold in 2022.” |