Mice Affairs Media, 07 Jan 2021
“In late 2019, even as Riskline analysts around the world were
forecasting the potential for an outbreak of the infectious disease in the coming
year, we could not have predicted the manifold ways in which a novel pandemic
would affect our lives, our work, and the world more broadly. Even the most
thorough assessment of a future pandemic could not have anticipated the
consequences of the decisions made by so many governments, public health
officials and individuals last year.” Adam Schrader, Director of Operations at
Riskline looks back at the huge impact on COVID-19 in 2020.
Looking ahead to the trends set to shape 2021, particularly the
international travel sector, Adam continues: “While there is hope that some
parts of the world will see the end of the pandemic this year, its effects will
continue to be felt in 2021 and beyond. It's not yet clear the extent of the
damage to healthcare systems or how long it will take them – and critically
their workforce – to recover. Nor is it known the long-term effects on populations
that were denied or postponed critical care or vaccinations for other deadly
diseases. What's likely to be with us well into the future is the accompanying
'infodemic' – that virus of misinformation that often overwhelms sound public
health messaging.”
These and other key trends for the year ahead have been researched by
Riskline’s global team of analysts and provide useful guidance for companies
planning and managing employee travel in the year ahead.
TOP TRAVEL RISKS FOR 2021
1. Continued impact of COVID-19 on global travel
Even as the global travel industry gradually recovers from the absolute
standstill that it experienced through most of 2020, the pandemic’s disruptive
and ever-changing effect on the travel ecosystem will certainly continue this
year. The desire for countries to limit exposure to COVID-19 will put pressure
on travellers to obtain mandatory documentation relating to insurance, testing,
pre-approved accommodation and, eventually, vaccination, prior to travel, which
imposes additional cost burdens on travellers. Entry and exit restrictions
imposed by governments or their assessment of the COVID-19 situation in a
traveller's country of origin change at short notice, further complicating
global travel. Travellers in most countries should continue to expect measures
such as health screening, quarantine and testing, socially distanced seating
arrangements and contactless check-ins or transactions at airports, major
public transport hubs, hotels and other facilities. Expect renewed lockdowns in
high-risk areas and a reduction in capacity for transportation services of all
kinds to be the new norm in 2021.
2. Severity of natural disasters
Due to climate change, the effects of natural disasters, such as
tropical and winter storms, wildfires and monsoon rainfall in 2021 will
continue to be more severe and emergency services personnel will be unable to
respond to them in a timely manner in countries grappling with a new wave of
COVID-19 infections. The trend will be similar when natural disasters hit
countries this year, as emergency services are still understaffed and stretched
thin and most resources have been allocated towards tackling the COVID-19
outbreak. Countries particularly at risk from natural disasters amid an
outbreak during 2021 include the United States (US), Italy, Kazakhstan and
Russia, during the winter storm season (January-March); the US, Brazil, Greece
and Indonesia (April-August), and Australia and New Zealand (January to April)
during the wildfire season; and India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines,
China and Pakistan during the cyclone and monsoon seasons (May-November).
3. Overburdened health systems
The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed most health systems to their limits,
exposing long-standing gaps in public health infrastructure and healthcare in
many countries. A World Health Organisation (WHO) study from 105 countries
indicates that some 90 percent of countries experienced disruptions to
essential healthcare services, with low- and middle-income countries reporting
the greatest difficulties during the COVID-19 pandemic. Routine immunization,
diagnosis and treatment of non-communicable diseases, cancer and malaria, as
well as family planning, contraception and treatment for mental health
disorders have been the most affected. Distressingly, emergency services also
experienced disruptions in many countries. The pandemic will continue to test
the ability of health systems to withstand shocks while maintaining routine
functions and mitigating downstream health effects into 2021 and beyond, with Somalia,
Central African Republic, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, Chad, Niger,
the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Sudan, Cameroon, Libya, Iraq,
Nigeria, Uganda as well as Ethiopia, Eritrea, Haiti and Papua New Guinea among
the countries with the weakest capacity to cope with the added burden of the
pandemic.
4. Social unrest caused by anti-austerity measures/COVID-19 restrictions
and vaccine deployment
In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the
global economy will shrink by approximately 4.4 percent in 2020, due to the
COVID-19 pandemic. The effects of this recession will continue to be felt this
year, even with the deployment of a vaccine. Lower tax receipts and ballooning
public deficits are likely to force governments across the world to implement
painful austerity measures, including cuts to social programmes and
unemployment benefits. These actions carry with them the potential to trigger
popular unrest led by activist organizations such as the Yellow Vest (Gilets
Jaunes) movement in France and the People’s Assembly Against Austerity in the
United Kingdom (UK). Right-wing organizations in particular have increased
their visibility and membership in the United States (US), Canada and Europe to
protest COVID-19 restrictions, and will likely turn their attention to
castigating vaccination campaigns and seeking the ouster of incumbents on all
sides of the political spectrum. Disinformation to engage a wide coalition of
low-information voters will proliferate and bring together loose coalitions of
wildly divergent but "populist" factions.
5. Iran and tensions in the Middle East
Tensions between Iran and Israel, its Gulf Arab rivals – especially
Saudi Arabia – and the United States (US) reached new heights in 2020 with the assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani in January and the country's top
nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, in November. Iran has vowed to avenge
both deaths and its parliament approved a bill to suspend United Nations (UN)
inspections of their nuclear program. Meanwhile, Israeli authorities have warned
their own nuclear scientists and citizens to exercise increased caution in
anticipation of possible attacks. A direct Iranian retaliation on US interests
is unlikely but the government will continue to develop its nuclear
capabilities and support allies and proxies in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq
and Yemen. Iran's ability to retaliate has been hampered by the impact of the
COVID-19 outbreak on an already ailing economy, and while a delayed response is
expected this year, much will depend on the policy taken by Joe Biden towards
Iran, Israel and the Gulf Arab states.
6. Destabilisation of the Horn of Africa region
On 28 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared
victory over the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) after federal forces
captured the regional capital, Mekelle, following a near-month long conflict in
the northern Tigray region. The conflict has exacerbated ethnic tensions within
Ethiopia, spilled over into Eritrea – where TPLF forces have already fired
rockets towards Asmara – and triggered the displacement of tens of thousands of
Tigrayans across the Sudanese border. A protracted guerilla insurgency is
increasingly likely in the months ahead after TPLF leaders pledged to continue
fighting, and the prospect of disintegration and civil war looms as further
fighting threatens to draw other regional states into the conflict. Finally,
the wider Horn of Africa region is at an increased risk of destabilization as the a conflict could further spill over into neighbouring states, including Eritrea,
Sudan and Somalia, and worsen existing humanitarian, security and political
challenges in these countries.
7. Global political uncertainty amid a post-Brexit UK and post-Trump US
On 1 January 2021, the United Kingdom completed its year-long transition
period following the country's exit from the European Union (EU)and the effects will be just one of the several
uncertainties to watch out for this year. While Democrat Joe Biden's victory in
the 2020 United States presidential election generated optimism, he will have
big challenges ahead in economic recovery and fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.
Countries will have to consider whether the reversal of many of the Trump
administration's actions by a Biden administration will not simply be reversed
should a Republican be elected in 2024, and plan accordingly. France, with a
presidential election approaching in 2022, will likely be the focus of US
attention, more so than the UK. While a Biden administration will shore up
alliances, countries will enter into regional blocs less dependent on the US in
the event of further political turmoil. NATO will, in particular, have to
address the Turkish elephant in the room as President Erdogan continues to
insert himself in the domestic politics of other European member states and
engage in military adventurism across the Middle East and Southern Caucasus.
Additionally, Asia-Pacific partners such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and
Australia, will demand greater attention to deal with an emboldened People's
Republic of China.
8. Rise in violent crime in developing countries
An increase in crimes, such as carjacking and burglary, is expected in
developing and semi-developed countries, whose governments are unable to
provide adequate financial aid and other forms of relief amid the economic
downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic rages on and the
economic strain grows, criminal groups will likely have bigger recruitment
pools, particularly among adolescents due to the closure of schools and
universities and the lack of job opportunities. Due to this, incidents of
violent crime will likely increase in countries that already experience high
crime rates, such as Venezuela and South Africa. A rise in opportunistic crime,
such as looting and muggings, may occur in countries such as Egypt, where
organised groups do not normally operate.
These trends have been researched by
Riskline’s team of analysts in more than 15 countries and across
11 different time zones. The global team monitor the world's political crises,
security developments, and travel news every hour of every day - all aimed at
helping to keep travelers safe and managers informed.